When Teams Should Go For It

I updated my work regarding when teams should go for it. This time around, I included how many yards are needed for a first down. The only thing I did not consider was score differential, which obviously has an effect on whether or not it is smart to go for it on 4th down. I wanted to make a visual that was easy to digest and including score differential would create a plot that would be a bit overwhelming to to comprehend. I hope this visual can provide fans with a quick, general insight into whether or not it is smart for a team to go for it on fourth down depending on where their team is on the field. The data is from the 2017, 2018, and 2019 seasons.  Again, without considering score differential the following plot should provide a tool that, in general, can help you decide whether or not your team is making an optimal decision:

The following table shows how teams made decisions on 4th down, sorted by their win probability efficiency. The column n refers to the number of 4th downs faced by each team from the 2017 season through week 4 of 2019. WPA is the total sum of win probability added. WPA_rate refers to the average win probability added per 4th down decision:

Team	n	WPA	WPA_rate
NO	251	6.211646	0.0247476
CAR	249	5.826511	0.0233996
PHI	290	6.708923	0.0231342
JAX	318	7.274348	0.0228753
SEA	284	6.472430	0.0227902
TEN	285	6.127234	0.0214991
KC	241	5.105903	0.0211863
BAL	292	6.133023	0.0210035
CLE	284	5.949736	0.0209498
DAL	263	5.346181	0.0203277
SF	255	4.745451	0.0186096
IND	262	4.816956	0.0183853
WAS	279	4.919168	0.0176314
LAR	272	4.680137	0.0172064
OAK	254	4.367662	0.0171955
HOU	286	4.852588	0.0169671
CIN	257	4.328201	0.0168412
NYJ	303	5.070392	0.0167340
PIT	233	3.819015	0.0163906
GB	269	4.159784	0.0154639
DEN	288	4.442432	0.0154251
ATL	251	3.806670	0.0151660
BUF	291	4.136138	0.0142135
MIA	285	4.003178	0.0140462
NE	287	3.823110	0.0133209
DET	270	3.572651	0.0132320
TB	227	2.945880	0.0129774
NYG	290	3.541315	0.0122114
CHI	276	3.361816	0.0121805
ARI	303	3.518561	0.0116124
LAC	248	2.799185	0.0112870
MIN	272	2.878713	0.0105835

data via nflscrapr