Evaluating Saquon Barkley Through Two Seasons

Saquon Barkley is face of the New York Giants through two seasons in blue. He was drafted second overall in 2018, to the chagrin of the more analytically inclined football fan. On the surface Barkley seems to have been a slam-dunk pick. He has accumulated 2,310 yards on the ground and 1,159 yards through the air for a total of 3,469 scrimmage yards through two seasons (per Pro Football Reference). He led the NFL in scrimmage yards as a rookie and his two year total is 13th all time through two seasons for all backs since the NFL-AFL merger despite only playing in 13 games last season. On the surface this seems like an excellent for the Giants. But dig a little deeper and Barkley has not been the player Giants fans and the media have made him out to be.

Expected points added is a metric that values plays based on a variety of factors including, but not limited to down, distance and yard-line. Each play has an expected points value and the change in expected points between play is expected points added (EPA). This is the best way to gauge the value and success of plays in the NFL today. Success rate is the rate at which plays yield a positive expected points added. We can use this to show the benefits of throwing the ball relative to running. The average pass play yields an EPA of 0.07 while a running play on average results in an EPA of -0.04. So for the remainder of this post I will use success rate and EPA to evaluate the merits of player production.

Looking at just the Giants running backs the past two seasons, we see Barkley stands out in both volume and efficiency.

The following is the distribution of EPA on each carry for each back on the Giants: 

Barkley looks good, relative to his teammates. But looking at where he stands compared to the other most used backs in the NFL the past two years and his performance looks much less impressive: 

Barkley has a slightly above average EPA per play figure compared to all of the backs, but compared to the other more-used backs he is below average. His success rate is below average period. Given his reputation for making "home run" plays, this is not especially surprising. He lags behind stalwarts such as Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb. Check out the scale of the y-axis. Most backs, even the best of them, generally yield negative EPA per play on average. The following is the same information tabulated for backs commonly referred to as the superstars at the position. I considered above average plays those which yielded an above average EPA for a running play. High end plays are in the top 20th percentile of all plays and low end carries are those in the bottom 20th percentile: 

But what about his ability as a receiver? Part of the appeal of Barkley is the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. He does not fair much better. 

To say his per catch productivity is mediocre would be generous. Furthermore, I pulled the numbers for some of his peers who are considered the very best at receiving: 

Note that running back targets are still not a great value proposition. Most back yield less EPA per target than the average NFL target, which again is about 0.07 EPA. Finally, let's pull out the distributions of EPA per targets from three backs who are considered the best at receiving the ball out of the backfield: 

Barkley fairs much worse. Some might argue that Barkley has not had the best support in the form of quarterback and offensive line play. I would argue that if he is a transcendent player, he should be able to perform at the highest levels without that support. If that is not a satisfying answer, I would argue making a heavy investment in running back is a bad proposition in the first place. Two years in, Barkley's selection at 2nd overall still seems puzzling. The Giants could have used the selection on a player who plays a position that is more valued, such as a quarterback flier, a defensive back, a wide receiver, or a high end pass-rusher, the types of players that demand massive contracts on the open market. I worry that the Giants will double-down on the selection by handing Barkley a McCaffrey-type extension that will hamstring the Giants salary cap for the long-term future. All we can do now is wait and see if Dave Gettleman will accept the sunk cost and either play hard-ball or move on. I am dubious he will do so, but only time will tell.